Winter Experiment Project #3

Blog Entry 3 (Complete by 12/19):  Reflect on the experiment; how well did you follow the principles of a well-designed experiment, what did you learn from conducting the experiment (not your conclusions, but what did you learn about conducting an experiment), and were there any interesting revelations about this experience?

When looking back on my group's experiment I believe we did a pretty good job at following the four principals of a well designed experiment. We controlled the experiment well, we used the same water, the same milk, the same measuring tools, the same environment, and the same weight scale. However, what would have helped our experiment is if one person did the entire process, this would have reduced the possible errors because each of us poured liquids onto the toilet paper differently. Our treatments were also randomized, for the liquids we simply scooped/poured the desired amount of liquid into the measuring tool and went on with the experiment. I believe we did an excellent job in the field of replication. We produced three trials for each category of toilet paper and averaged the results, this not only gave us a true average, but used replication. We used a lot of blocking and factors. Once we had the three types of toilet paper decided we created several blocking groups including: water, milk, and large amounts of liquids.

The most important thing I took away from this experience is that it is important to create several blocking groups and factors, as well as randomizing to get the best results. The reason you need blocking groups is so that each group of subjects is tested in that category, it also allows for more data to be found, which can lead to more detailed conclusions. I also know now it is very important to randomize, this is because without it the results may be skewed due to unequal treatments. In future experiments both in and out of the classroom I will take special note to use these principals.

Something I learned from this experiment is that from now on I will definitely continue to use Northern Quilted Soft toilet paper. Through our experiment this toilet paper overall was the best, which was surprising considering the more expensive and highly advertised Charmin was involved in the study. This proves that what is more expensive is not always better. 

Winter Experiment Project #2

Blog Entry 2 (Complete by 12/14):  Give a report summarizing the data you collected from the experiment and the conclusions you can draw from the data collected.

Jacob Carson

This experiment tested for three separate, but similar, variable. Different types of toilet paper did better in some of the categories than their competitors. Overall the best toilet paper at soaking up water was Northern Quilted Soft; its average water soakage was the highest, at 4.10grams (Angel Soft- 3.00grams  Charmin- 3.95grams). The best toilet paper at absorbing milk was Angel Soft, this is because its average soakage was, 3.25grams (Northern Quilted Soft- 3.16grams  Charmin- 3.22grams ). When it came to absorbing large amounts of liquids Northern Quilted Soft was the victor, its average soakage of large amounts was 4.67grams (Angel Soft- 3.63grams  Charmin- 4.45grams ). In conclusion, the clear victor was North Quilted Soft toilet paper; this is because it won two out of the three variables. I was surprised to see that the Charmin didn't win any of the variables. Charmin advertises its product very well, and it is also expensive, this lead to a false conclusion that Charmin was the best kind of toilet paper out of the three; it showed that in order to learn what product is the best you need to conduct a balanced experiment.




Results:

Northern Quilted Soft

	One Ply-0.5g	Two Ply-1.0g
1/2 tsp water average	2.67g	3g
trial one trial two trial three	3g 3g 2g	4g 2g 3g
tsp water average	4.67g	6g
trial one trial two trial three	4g 4g 5g	6g 7g 5g
1/2 tsp milk average	2g	2.67g
trial one trial two trial three	2g 2g 2g	3g 2g 2g
tsp milk average	3.67g	4.33g
trial one trial two trial three	3g 4g 3g	5g 3g 5g

Angel Soft

	One Ply-0.5g	Two Ply-1.0g
1/2 tsp water average	2g	2.5g
trial one trial two trial three	2g 2g 2g	4g 2g 3g
tsp water average	3g	4.5g
trial one trial two trial three	3g 4g 2g	6g 7g 5g
1/2 tsp milk average	3g	3g
trial one trial two trial three	3g 3g 3g	3g 2g 2g
tsp milk average	3.5g	3.5g
trial one trial two trial three	3.5g 3.5g 3.5g	5g 3g 5g

Charmin Toilet Paper Brand

	One Ply-0.5g	Two Ply-1.0g
1/2 tsp water average	1.83g	4.03g
trial one trial two trial three	1.4g 2.1g 2.0g	4.1g 4.1g 3.9g
tsp water average	4.6g	5.33g
trial one trial two trial three	4.3g 4.4g 5.1g	4.7g 6.0g 5.3g
1/2 tsp milk average	2.87g	2.13g
trial one trial two trial three	3.1g 2.8g 2.7g	1.9g 2.3g 2.2g
tsp milk average	4.03g	3.83g
trial one trial two trial three	4.1g 3.9g 4.1g	3.9g 4.0g 3.6g

Winter Experiment Project Blog #1

Blog Entry 1 (Complete by 12/3):  Explain your experiment.  Be sure to include the following:

• ·         You goal for the experiment.
• ·         How you will use the 4 Principles of a Well-Designed Experiment.
• ·         A description of your factors, levels, and treatments.
• ·         A timeline for your experiment.

Our goal for our experiment is to test how generic toilet paper compares to name brand toilet paper. 

Control-- we will control the type of liquids used, the setting, who does the pouring the the liquids, the scale used to measure the amount of liquid absorbed.

Randomize-- we will randomly choose pieces of toilet paper by assigning values to pieces of toilet paper and using a random number generator.

Replicate-- we will use multiple trials, and write down all the steps so that it can be repeated by others.

Blocking-- we will blocking by using different values of liquid, different liquids and different numbers of sheets.

Factors-- volume of water used, volume of juice used, and number of sheets used.

Levels-- we will use tap water, and pulpy orange juice as our liquids. Then we will use two different volumes of liquids (to be announced). Number of sheets will differ from one to two sheets.

Treatments-- our treatments will be using different liquids, while our blocking and factors were different sheets, our treatments will involve water, and a thicker liquid, orange juice.

Timeline-- Unlike other experiments our experiment will only take place during one day. However, the sequence of events will be randomly select sheets of toilet paper... in groups of one and two. Then we will do complete all of the water trials, for both groups of sheets. Then we will complete this for the orange juice. We will weigh the initial sheets, then pour the liquid on and see how much liquid the sheet absorbed.

Stats at the Movies

a. A brief description of the article and its conclusions.

b. Your overall thoughts about the content of the article and how interesting you found it.

c. How the article relates to what we are currently learning in AP Stats.

d. What new things did you find in the article that we have NOT talked about yet in AP Stats.

3. In the article, the writer uses his linear model (equation) to make predictions about the gross earning for movies, choose a 2011 movie that he does not use in the article and comment on how well his model predicted its gross earnings. Then choose a movie that will be released in the next 3 months and use his model to predict its gross earnings.

4. Most everything should be typed in paragraph form. Include at least one picture in your blog entry. Graphical displays or infographics would be nice as well.

2A. The article, Cinemath: Good Movies Do Better at the Box Office; Also Helps to Be Expensive, PG-13, and a Sequel, by Brendan Bettinger, asks the question of “Do moviegoers care if a movie is good?” The answer to this question is yes. Using data from 2011 Bettinger found that on average as the rating of a movie goes up so does the domestic box office gross. Using the categories of rotten tomatoes review, whether is was PG-13, its budget, number of theaters it was released to, and the if it was a sequel. Using these variables Bettinger found the approximate equation,  Gross = –80 + 0.6×RT + 0.5×Budget + 0.025×Theaters + 50×Sequel + 20×PG13, to find how much a movie will make at the box office. Overall the equation works well with a positive correlation of 0.65. This shows that movie goers do care if a movie is good.

2B. I didn't find the article to be very interesting. While he did put many variables into finding the the gross, he forgot the most important variable, individuals. Different critics and different people enjoy different movies. While critics continue to rave about The Artist or Black Swan I fell asleep in both these movies. If a movie has a big name it will most likely be a huge success (any superhero movie).

2C. The article related mostly to chapter seven and eight. It used a scatterplot to find the line of best fit and the correlation between the two variables of Rotten Tomatoes review and domestic box office gross. It also greatly referred to the residuals squared value in order to determine how well the equation fit the data.

2D. Things I found in the article that we have not gone over in class is how to create an equation for a set of data that is useful, using multiple variable. It also talked about component residual graphs which we have not discussed.

3. 2011 Movie-- Rise of the Planet of the Apes

RT--83%

Sequel--Yes, well Prequel but hopefully that counts

Budget--$93 Million

Theaters--3648

PG-13--Yes

Gross--$176 Million

Gross = –80 + 0.6×83 + 0.5×93 + 0.025×3648 + 50×1 + 20×1=177.5

The equation does a GREAT job at predicting the domestic box office gross. The equation estimated 177.5 Million, and the actual value was 176 Million. The percent error is 0.85%!

3. 2012 Movie-- The Hobbit, An Unexpected Journey
RT--95%
Sequel--Yes
Budget--$270 Million
Theaters--4000
PG-13--Yes
Gross--Unknown
Gross = –80 + 0.6×95 + 0.5×270 + 0.025×4000 + 50×1 + 20×1=223 Million

Infographic

I decided to do my infographic on which Xbox360 series was considered the best overall. I chose what I believed, with some advice from my Xbox party friends, were the top six current series; creating the list of Call of Duty, Halo, Elder Scrolls, Minecraft, FIFA, and Madden. I wanted to get a game from every major category: shooter, role-playing, alternative, and sports. I originally didn't think of putting Minecraft into the mix, but its success on Xbox Live is unrivaled (I am also an addict). What I found out from my research was that while most Mason highschool students may prefer to play their Call of Duty, they may be better off playing another game (one that "experts" prefer) like Skyrim, or Halo. I was suprised by how many people really preferred to play sport games like FIFA and Madden (I personally choose to avoid this genre). However, this spike in this genre may be from where I collected my data--cross-country runners. Areas where I thought my data could be skewed is in the total units sold category. This si because certain games have been out longer than others, this is partly why I chose to use FIFA and Madden 2012, and not 2013, for the new version had just come out this summer. I had a lot of fun researching this data, and will probably coninue to check up on some of the websites I found for the latest statistical data on new games.


 

Superhero extended story

Vladimir was a common foot soldier deployed in the War in Afghanistan with the Soviet Union in 1982. However one day there was a near fatal accident that Vladimir was involved in. It was during a Soviet offense into the city of Herat and a car bomb explosion hit Vladimir's squad. All of Vladimir's squad was killed in the explosion and Vladimir was near death, however he was saved by a nearby medical team and put on life support. Vladimir's life would soon change as he was the perfect candidate for a new experimental armor suit.
Dr. Izil had been working on a suit of armor that could be hardwired into a person's body. The suit would increase the wearer's physical attributes like strength and speed, but would also equip the wearer with military weapons. Vladimir was rushed back to Moscow to receive the operation where he would be permanently altered by the procedure. The experimental process was a success and Vladimir would soon become the Soviet Union's strongest secret weapon. Equipped with gatling guns, rockets, and a tesla cannon, he was an unstoppable war machine.
As Vladimir roamed third world countries, destroying villages a new name began to follow him, Death Metal. Wherever he sent by the USSR he would bring destruction. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union Vladimir was sent on missions by an underground organization still grasping to the Bolshevik-Communist empire. However, as the days wore on so did Vladimir's willingness to kill the innocent. In the year 2006 he decided to start his own path, one in which he did not take orders, but followed his heart and gave justice to those who he believed deserved it. He abandoned his real name Vladimir, and took up his common name...Death Metal.
Death Metal killed cruel dictators, stopped genocide, and fought the good fight. He thought he would be able to do this for as long as he could without any real competition. Although he wasn't the only one in a metal suit now. Dr. Izil was still working and had recently perfected his suit. And a new volunteer had come to the Doctor. Agent Abdulov was his name and he was a new model, this suit effected not only physically, but also  mentally. Agent Abdulov would commit the crimes of Dr. Izil and would hunt down Vladimir. This is where Death Metal's journey would take him.

5 W's

The 5 W's may just be the single most important piece of information that has graced this planet we call earth. They consist of Who, What, Where, When, Why, and even sometimes How. The who signals for who the data collected by, or who answered the data questions. The what stands for what the data is about, or the description of the data. The where is the location of where the data was collected, or the place where the data was researched. The when is the time period of the data collection. The why is the reason behind doing the collection of the data. While how is not always asked it does have a "W" at the end and therefore deserves respect. The how stands for how the data was collected, whether that be by going door-to-door or keeping people in a locked room. These are the 5 W's, enjoy.